UFC Winnipeg – Burns VS Malott Picks and Predictions are here 🔥 The UFC returns to Winnipeg for the first time since 2017 with a high-stakes welterweight headliner that pits experience against hometown momentum. Former title challenger and No. 11-ranked Gilbert Burns looks to snap a difficult skid and prove he’s still a top-tier threat, while Canadian standout Mike Malott aims for a career-defining victory in front of a home crowd at the Canada Life Centre.
With both fighters known for their finishing ability. Burns with his world-class grappling and Malott with his opportunistic submissions and power. This main event promises to be a pivotal crossroads for the 170-pound division.
Gilbert Burns (+230) VS Mike Malott (-294)
In Canada, local favorite Mike Malott is set to face seasoned Brazilian veteran Gilbert Burns. While Burns enters this bout on a four-fight losing skid and arguably past his physical prime, he remains a dangerous out for anyone in the division; a true warrior whose resilience cannot be overlooked. Facing the prospect of a fifth consecutive defeat, Burns will be highly motivated, though the task is steep as he faces Malott on the Canadian’s home turf.
Malott, 34, has tasted defeat only once in the UFC—a late stoppage against Neil Magny—and will be desperate to avoid a second straight loss in front of a home crowd. Expect Burns to utilize a high-variance approach, likely testing Malott’s takedown defense early. While Malott has rarely been pressured on the mats, he has shown vulnerability to being taken down, though he is notoriously difficult to hold in bottom position.
On the feet, the striking metrics are relatively even. However, Malott holds a distinct advantage in height and reach. He will look to operate from the outside to mitigate the power Burns possesses in the pocket. It is worth noting that while Burns has struggled recently, his losses came against the absolute elite of the welterweight division—a level Malott has yet to prove he can reach.
Despite Burns’ high-level experience, the pick here leans toward Malott. The age gap and the “home-field” advantage in Canada suggest Malott will be the fresher, more psychologically composed fighter on fight night. Expect a highly competitive contest that could ultimately be decided by Malott’s ability to maintain range and activity.
Final Picks and Predictions : Gilbert Burns
Kyler Philips (+122) VS Charles Jourdain (-149)
Coming off a two-fight losing streak, Kyler Phillips is set to face Canada’s Charles Jourdain, who enters this matchup in peak form following back-to-back submission victories. While Phillips often blends effective striking with offensive wrestling, he is unlikely to initiate aggressive grappling in the early rounds; his Canadian opponent is lethal on the mats and poses a significant submission threat from almost any position.
Jourdain has also proven to be highly effective on the feet, often using his striking to set up finishing sequences on the ground. Consequently, Phillips must remain disciplined in both facets of the game to avoid walking into one of Jourdain’s traps. Given their recent trajectories, Jourdain appears to have the momentum. Having recently found a more composed and clinical rhythm in the Octagon, Jourdain is the favorite to secure a victory in his home country, potentially ending the night with another clinical finish.
Final Pick and Prediction : Charles Jourdain
Mandell Nallo (-175) VS Jai Herbert (+142)
Information remains limited on Canadian prospect Mandel Nallo, who is set to make his promotional debut at 36 years old against the experienced English veteran Jai Herbert. Nallo earned his UFC contract with a highlight-reel first-round knockout on Dana White’s Contender Series, showcasing sharp striking and punishing kicks. However, he faces a formidable striker in Herbert—a man who famously dropped Ilia Topuria and is coming off a competitive split-decision loss to Chris Padilla.
Expect a cagey opening as both men look to find their range, likely utilizing a heavy kicking game in what promises to be a tactical affair. In this high-level chess match, the edge goes to Herbert. While Nallo’s regional highlights are impressive, his strength of schedule remains a question mark, and he suffered three finish losses during his tenure in Bellator. Given Herbert’s proven ability to compete with the division’s elite, he likely represents a step up in competition that Nallo may struggle to overcome, despite the home-field advantage in Canada.
Final Pick and Prediction : Jai Herbert
Jasmine Jasudavicius (-312) VS Karine Silva (+240)
Another Canadian fighter on this card, Jasmine Jasudavicius, looks to defend her home against Karine Silva. A glaring statistical disadvantage for Silva is her 21% takedown defense; opponents have historically found little resistance when attempting to bring her to the mat. Jasudavicius is a fighter who consistently capitalizes on grappling advantages, and it is likely she will look to exploit this weakness early and often.
The discrepancy in efficiency continues on the feet. Silva lands only 39% of her significant strikes, whereas Jasudavicius connects at a much higher 51% clip. When looking at the technical data and recent performances, Jasudavicius appears to be the more complete martial artist in every department. It is difficult to find a clear path to victory for Silva in this matchup, especially with Jasudavicius fighting in front of a partisan Canadian crowd.
Final Pick – Jasmine Jasudavicius
Thiago Moises (+112) VS Gauge Young (-137)
It has been three years since we last saw Thiago Moises secure a submission victory inside the Octagon, and Winnipeg may provide the perfect stage for his grappling to return to the forefront. Despite the odds, Gaugue Young enters as the favorite, though he is coming off a performance against Maheshate where he was unable to find a finish. To date, Young hasn’t faced a veteran of this caliber; Moises represents a significant step up in competition and a true litmus test for the prospect.
While Young earned his way into the promotion, his defensive grappling remains a major question mark. He was taken down nine times by Salkilld on Dana White’s Contender Series. Although Salkilld couldn’t find the finish, a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist like Moises is far more equipped to capitalize on those positions. While finishing Young remains a difficult task, Moises possesses the veteran savvy and diverse skill set necessary to control the action. Expect Moises to utilize his superior ground game to stifle Young’s offense and secure the victory.
Final Pick and Prediction : Thiago Moises
Dennis Buzukja (+350) VS Macio Barbosa (-476)
Dennis Buzukja has arguably yet to reach his full potential within the Octagon, having dropped three of his first four promotional appearances. This upcoming bout likely serves as a must-win crossroads for his UFC tenure. Standing across from him is Marcio Barbosa, a powerhouse who secured his contract with a dominant first-round knockout on Dana White’s Contender Series. Barbosa’s professional record is telling: out of 17 victories, 14 have come via knockout and two by submission, with only a single decision win—clearly underscoring his devastating finishing ability.
While Buzukja has only been finished once in his career, suggesting he is a durable out, he faces a difficult task in weathering the Brazilian’s power. The key for Buzukja will be his wrestling; implementing a heavy grappling game to neutralize the striking threat is his clearest path to victory. However, based on the limited data available on Barbosa, he possesses the defensive grappling necessary to keep the fight standing. On the feet, the advantage leans toward Barbosa, whose track record suggests he has the tools to dictate the pace and damage.
Final Picks and Predictions : Macio Barbosa
