UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland Picks and Predictions are here 🔥 The Octagon lands in Newark, New Jersey, for UFC 328, a card headlined by a massive middleweight clash with major title implications. As we dive into our picks and predictions, all eyes are on the main event between the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev and the ever-durable former champion Sean Strickland.
Khamzat Chimaev (-588) VS Sean Strickland (+440)
We are on the verge of one of the most intriguing matchups in recent years, fueled by a deep backstory and intense rivalry outside the Octagon. Khamzat Chimaev enters as a massive betting favorite, with oddsmakers giving Sean Strickland minimal chances of an upset. Chimaev’s rise in the middleweight division was punctuated by a clinical, albeit methodical, dominant victory over Dricus Du Plessis. In that bout, Chimaev was flawless, remaining composed and sticking strictly to a pre-determined game plan.
It is likely we will see a similar approach here. Throughout the buildup, Chimaev appears intent on avoiding Strickland’s trademark chaos, maintaining a level-headed demeanor heading into the cage. Strickland’s primary path to victory lies in his ability to drag Chimaev into a high-variance war—much like the pace Chimaev sustained in his bout against Gilbert Burns, where he expended massive energy both on the feet and the mat. If Chimaev refuses to bite on that bait and replicates the disciplined 25-minute tactical masterclass he used against Du Plessis, the script may repeat itself.
Strickland’s success hinges on his takedown defense, which officially stands at a stout 76%. While Kamaru Usman only managed to land two takedowns against him at a 25% clip, Du Plessis, whom Chimaev grounded with ease—managed to take Strickland down six times. While Strickland is notoriously difficult to keep down, he has never faced a grappler of Chimaev’s caliber who is so singularly focused on chain wrestling and positional control.
However, the danger for Chimaev is clear: if he fails to secure the takedown and the fight lingers, Strickland’s cardio and volume could see him dismantle the “Borz” in the later rounds. That said, Chimaev’s professional evolution is undeniable. With an elite support system including a dedicated nutritionist and top-tier strength and conditioning, he appears to be in peak physical condition. While no one is ever truly without a chance in a championship-caliber fight, Chimaev’s tactical discipline and physical form make him the distinct favorite to win.
Final Picks and Predictions: Khamzat Chimaev
Joshua Van (+138) VS Tatsuro Taira (-164)
Joshua Van is set for his first title defense against Japan’s Tatsuro Taira. The 24-year-old champion faces a hungry challenger in the 26-year-old Taira, who has never been closer to UFC gold and will undoubtedly bring the best version of himself to the Octagon. Both fighters possess elite, well-rounded skill sets, a fact supported by their striking metrics. Van lands a staggering 8.84 significant strikes per minute at a 56% accuracy rate—an exceptional output even for the flyweight division. However, he is far from untouchable, absorbing 6.39 strikes per minute with a 57% defensive rate.
Taira will hold a clear advantage in both height and reach. While Van’s pressure often negates a reach disadvantage, it’s worth noting that his only Octagon defeat came against Charles Johnson, a fighter whose range and movement gave Van significant trouble. This suggests that Taira’s physical dimensions could be a deciding factor. Furthermore, Taira’s grappling is world-class; however, the challenge lies in getting the fight to the mat. Van boasts a robust 81% takedown defense rate, which may force this into a protracted kickboxing match.
If the fight remains standing, Van’s high-octane pace could overwhelm Taira, much like the difficulties Taira faced against Brandon Royval. On the other hand, Taira holds the edge in experience over the championship distance, having already competed in a five-round main event, whereas the champion has never seen a fourth or fifth round in his professional career.
Taira is a dual-threat finisher who can find a stoppage both on the feet and on the ground. For those who believe Van can keep the fight standing for 25 minutes and avoid Taira’s finishing sequences, the champion is the logical pick. However, given the reach dynamics and Taira’s elite submission game, there is a strong sense that Tatsuro Taira will make history as Japan’s first-ever UFC champion.
Final Picks and Predictions : Tatsuro Taira
Alexander Volkov (-159) VS Waldes Cortes Acosta (+134)
Before the flyweights take center stage, we’ll see the big men collide. Rising heavyweight prospect Waldes Cortes Acosta faces a massive step up in competition against Alexander Volkov, a seasoned elite of the division. There is a perceptible gap in pedigree here; these two appear to be operating in different tiers. Volkov is entering his 19th promotional appearance and is arguably in the best form of his professional career.
The transitive properties of their recent outings are telling: Acosta suffered a decision loss to Sergei Pavlovich, a man Volkov recently dismantled with clinical precision. Furthermore, Volkov holds a high-level win over Ciryl Gane—who, it should be noted, is slated to challenge Alex Pereira for the title at the White House on June 14.
One doesn’t need an extensive list of arguments to favor the Russian veteran in this matchup. Volkov’s technical depth and experience at the highest level should be the deciding factors. Expect Volkov to navigate the danger and secure a comfortable unanimous decision victory over Acosta.
Final Picks and Predictions : Alexander Volkov
Sean Brady (-169) VS Joaquin Buckley (+144)
Predicting the exact trajectory of this fight is a difficult task, but Joaquin Buckley’s path to victory is clear: he must hunt the chin and find a knockout blow. Conversely, Sean Brady’s objective is simple—secure the takedown and control the action on the mat for all three rounds. The narrative of this bout hinges entirely on which man can impose his will first.
Brady’s durability has been questioned in the past, as we’ve seen him stopped twice in the UFC by Belal Muhammad and Michel Pereira (notably, both fights where Brady was forced to strike for extended periods against opponents with high-level takedown defense). In matchups where Brady successfully implements his grappling, he has remained dominant.
Buckley, however, brings a stout 70% takedown defense rate to the Octagon—a figure high enough to suggest he can keep this fight standing. If Buckley can force Brady into a striking match and avoid being grounded, he will likely find his opening. I expect Buckley to eventually find his moment and secure a knockout victory within the three-round distance.
Final Picks and Predictions : Joaquin Buckley Via TKO
King Green (-357) VS Jeremy Stephens (+285)
Jeremy Stephens put on a resilient display in his recent outing against Mason Jones, showing incredible durability by remaining conscious despite absorbing a barrage of heavy strikes. However, it has been eight years since “Lil Heathen” secured a truly convincing victory inside the Octagon, and I don’t see Bobby Green being the fighter to snap that streak.
Green is currently enjoying a resurgence, coming off a clinical knockout of the rising prospect Daniel Zellhuber and a dominant “welcome to the UFC” performance against Gibson. Given Green’s slick movement and high-volume boxing, a veteran in Stephens’ current form appears to have very few answers for him on the feet. Expect Green to dictate the terms of the striking exchanges in what looks like a mismatch in technical proficiency.
Final Pick and Predictions : King Green
