Mario Bautista (-192) VS. Vinicius Oliveira (+155)
The UFC returns to the Meta Apex this Saturday for UFC Vegas 113, headlined by a high-stakes bantamweight clash between the surging Mario Bautista and the explosive Vinicius Oliveira. As the UFC officially ushers in its new broadcast era on Paramount+, the 135-pound main event serves as a pivotal crossroads for the division’s top 15. Bautista, currently ranked No. 9, looks to defend his territory against the “All Gas, No Brakes” style of No. 11-ranked Oliveira. With both men eyeing a trajectory toward the title conversation in 2026.
The veteran presence of Mario Bautista represents the first true litmus test for Vinicius Oliveira. To date, the Brazilian has yet to face an opponent of Bautista’s caliber, leaving questions as to how he will navigate such a significant step up in competition. Regardless of the outcome, Oliveira should not expect an easy fight.
In his most recent outing, Bautista lost to Umar Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision. However, he earned significant stock in defeat by offering stiff resistance and proving he can hang with the division’s elite. Unlike his tactical battle with Nurmagomedov, we expect Mario Bautista to engage in more frequent striking exchanges here. Vinicius Oliveira rarely initiates the wrestling, preferring to keep the fight standing a game plan that likely suits both men and promises a high-volume striking affair. However, the possibility remains that Oliveira may look to mix it with some wrestling to diversify his attack.
While the statistics show both fighters are neck-and-neck in terms of striking accuracy both defensively and offensively, the context is key: Bautista’s metrics were earned against the division’s elite. This gives his statistical profile significantly more weight and credibility heading into this matchup.
The primary path to victory for Mario Bautista lies in his ability to out-point Oliveira over the long haul. Expect Bautista to prioritize octagon control and a risk-averse approach, picking his spots to pull ahead in close rounds. By maintaining a consistent pace across all five rounds, Bautista will likely look to upset Oliveira and secure a win via unanimous decision.
Conversely, Vinicius Oliveira will look to disrupt that rhythm and drag Bautista out of his comfort zone. Utilizing his signature unorthodox striking, Oliveira’s objective will be to land damaging, fight-altering shots and inject chaos into the exchanges. It is within this volatility that the Brazilian finds his greatest opportunities to capitalize.
Ultimately, while the technical skill sets appear remarkably neck-and-neck, I expect Mario Bautista’s veteran savvy and experience against top-tier opposition to be the deciding factor, leading him to a decision victory. However, even in defeat, Oliveira’s stock remains high; his trajectory suggests he will continue to evolve, and he undoubtedly possesses the ceiling to eventually cement himself within the divisional Top 5.
Final UFC Prediction: Mario Bautista By Decision (+180)
Amir Albazi (+280) VS Kyoji Horiguchi (-370)
Following a stagnant 2025, Amir Albazi returns to face 35-year-old Japanese standout Kyoji Horiguchi. Horiguchi made an immediate impact in his promotional return, signaling that he has unfinished business in the UFC and remains fully committed to a title run. In his last outing in Doha, he was tasked with overcoming the significant size and reach of Tagir Ulanbekov one of the flyweight division’s largest frames. Despite the physical disadvantage, Horiguchi navigated the challenge masterfully, ultimately securing the victory via submission.
In contrast, Amir Albazi has been largely absent from the Octagon throughout 2025. With his last victory dating back to 2023, Albazi has seemingly vanished from the title conversation since his high-profile clash with Brandon Moreno, making his current form and cage rust significant question marks heading into this co-main event.
While the current form of Amir Albazi remains a significant question mark due to his layoff, we have already witnessed the sheer hunger Kyoji Horiguchi brings back to the Octagon. The gap in experience between the two is vast; with 41 professional bouts under his belt, Horiguchi boasts a resume filled with elite-level competition.
Albazi, by comparison, lacks that same depth of experience against world-class opposition. The standout victory on his record remains a highly debated split decision over Kai Kara-France. A performance that many analysts found unconvincing. Against a veteran as seasoned as Horiguchi, Albazi will need to prove that he belongs among the elite or risk being outclassed by the Japanese star’s superior tactical pedigree.
Kyoji Horiguchi maintains an incredibly high output, a trait that was on full display against Ulanbekov. Throughout all three rounds, his focus never wavered as he consistently applied pressure. The striking differential in that bout was staggering: Horiguchi landed 49 significant strikes while absorbing only six. His defensive metrics are elite, and while Amir Albazi also boasts a high defensive percentage, his offensive efficiency is a cause for concern.
With a striking accuracy of just 34%, Albazi struggles to find his target. A deficiency that will likely be exploited by Horiguchi’s movement. On the feet, the advantage clearly leans toward the Japanese veteran. I expect Albazi to struggle with Horiguchi’s relentless pace and pressure, which will inevitably force him to initiate the wrestling. However, Horiguchi is far from a liability on the mats. We saw Albazi wilt under high-volume pressure against Brandon Moreno, where he absorbed 132 strikes and secured only a single takedown. If he cannot find a way to ground Horiguchi early, it could be a long night for the ‘Prince of Iraq.
Ultimately, I am siding with Kyoji Horiguchi to secure the victory in this clash. While Amir Albazi has proven incredibly durable throughout his career having never been finished inside the distance, he faces a unique threat this weekend. Given Horiguchi’s clinical precision and momentum, we could very well see Albazi’s chin fail him for the first time, with the Japanese star potentially providing a definitive stoppage win.
Final Prediction for UFC Vegas 113 Co-Main event Horiguchi VS Albazi – Kyoji Moneyline (-370)
Jailton Almeida (-147) VS Rizvan Kuniev (+120)
Wushu Sanda specialist Rizvan Kuniev finds himself once again tasked with thwarting a high-level grappler. In his previous outing, Kuniev’s takedown defense held up remarkably well; Curtis Blaydes managed only two successful takedowns and failed to maintain any significant ground control. By the second frame, Blaydes’ wrestling was effectively neutralized, allowing Kuniev to operate on the feet. However, it was evident that the looming threat of the takedown forced Kuniev into a more hesitant striking rhythm throughout the bout.
In contrast, Jailton Almeida employs a far more aggressive grappling system, prioritizing early entries and heavy top control. A style that has often been criticized for its lack of activity. In his recent matchup against Alexander Volkov, Almeida secured seven takedowns and accumulated significant control time. However, his failure to generate offense. Landing only nine total strikes over three rounds led the judges to favor Volkov’s activity. For Almeida, the challenge remains: he must find a way to balance his dominant wrestling with the effective damage required to sway the scorecards. It must be noted that Jailton Almeida possesses remarkable speed and fluid movement for the heavyweight division, allowing him to neutralize incoming strikes through his footwork. The brief windows in which the fight remains standing will be critical, specifically regarding Almeida’s ability to force the grappling. To date, ‘Malhadinho’ has rarely struggled to secure takedowns; however, as demonstrated in the Blaydes fight, Rizvan Kuniev possesses high-level defensive wrestling.
A key distinction lies in the entry mechanics of both grapplers: while Curtis Blaydes often attempts takedowns from a more upright position with slower execution. A difficult task in the heavyweight division Almeida utilizes deep level changes and explosive entries. This technical nuance suggests Almeida may find more success in grounding the Sanda specialist. Conversely, if Kuniev stuffs the initial shots, Almeida could find himself in deep waters. He lacks the traditional ‘one-punch’ knockout power typically associated with heavyweights and often appears limited in his striking creativity.
Almeida has likely absorbed several harsh lessons from his recent outings. He has the blueprint for victory, but the onus is on him to demonstrate growth, specifically by integrating ground-and-pound into his aggressive wrestling chain. While this matchup is volatile and could swing in either direction, I am siding with Almeida. Ultimately, he is the more known commodity at this level, whereas Kuniev still has much to prove against the divisional elite.
Final UFC Prediction: Jailton Almeida (-147)
Michal Oleksiejczuk (-526) VS Marc-Andre Barriault (+370)
According to the oddsmakers, Marc-André Barriault enters this contest as a massive underdog against Michał Oleksiejczuk. In a matchup like this, traditional metrics—age, reach, and physical data—often take a backseat to the raw competitive nature of both men. However, a clear stylistic shift has emerged: Oleksiejczuk appears to be undergoing a legitimate career resurgence. His approach has evolved significantly in recent outings, displaying a newfound tactical discipline and a commitment to pre-determined game plans. After a grueling three-fight skid, he rebounded emphatically with two dominant first-round finishes.
Conversely, Barriault seems stuck in the same developmental phase that plagued Oleksiejczuk years ago—fighting with a high-intensity, ‘search and destroy’ mentality that lacks a cohesive blueprint. This approach has yielded poor results lately, with the Canadian dropping four of his last five contests. At 35 years old, a fundamental overhaul of one’s fighting style is a rare feat. Consequently, I expect to see the same reckless, plan-less version of Barriault on Saturday night—a dangerous gamble against a revitalized and highly mobilized Oleksiejczuk.
Barriault’s path to an upset relies on his ability to muddy the waters and draw Oleksiejczuk into a high-variance brawl. He will likely attempt to close the distance and find a home for his signature power in the pocket. However, Oleksiejczuk has shown he is well-equipped to handle such aggression. Expect the Pole to utilize his reach and careful distance management to dismantle Barriault from the outside with heavy, accurate counter-striking.
Much of Oleksiejczuk’s recent evolution can be attributed to his move to Brazil to train with the Fighting Nerds stable. This shift toward a more professional, structured approach to his career has paid immediate dividends in the cage. He enters this bout with a refined technical edge and a high degree of preparedness; consequently, it is highly probable that we see Oleksiejczuk secure another emphatic stoppage victory over the durable Canadian
Final UFC Prediction: Michal Oleksiejczuk
Jean Matsumoto (+225) VS Farid Basharat (-286)
Coming off two consecutive split-decision outings, the 26-year-old Brazilian Jean Matsumoto faces a daunting task against the undefeated Farid Basharat. While both men stand at an equal height, Basharat holds a clear advantage in the reach department. Statistically, Matsumoto’s striking efficiency is a concern, with only 41% of his significant strikes finding their mark. Conversely, Basharat absorbs a mere 2.5 strikes per minute and boasts a 60% striking defense rate. These metrics suggest that Basharat will effectively neutralize Matsumoto’s output and maintain a superior technical edge on the feet.
On the grappling front, Matsumoto’s wrestling has historically only looked elite against lower-tier grapplers. While he secured seven takedowns against Rob Font, he was still unable to clinch the victory, and he notably struggled to ground Miles Johns. Basharat, however, is a different caliber of athlete; he successfully defends 72% of attempted takedowns and has yet to be out-grappled across six UFC appearances. When analyzing their respective levels of opposition, Basharat’s strength of schedule is far more impressive. Matsumoto does not appear to be the fighter capable of handing Basharat his first professional loss. As for the finish, expect this to go to the scorecards; Matsumoto has never been finished in his career, and Basharat has secured a stoppage in only one of his six promotional outings. I am forecasting a unanimous decision victory for Farid Basharat.
Final UFC Prediction : Farid Basharat By Decision (-115)
Dustin Jacoby (-192) VS Julius Walker (+155)
The light heavyweight division sees a clash of generations as 37-year-old veteran Dustin Jacoby welcomes 26-year-old Iulius Walker for his third promotional appearance. Jacoby enters the Octagon with a staggering 30 professional MMA bouts and a high-level kickboxing pedigree, representing a literal sea of experience. In stark contrast, Walker is still in the nascent stages of his career with only eight professional fights to his name.
While Walker boasted a 100% finish rate prior to signing with the UFC, both of his promotional outings have gone to the judges’ scorecards—a trend that raises legitimate questions regarding the translation of his power to the elite level. Much like his approach against Alonzo Menifield, Walker is expected to lean heavily on his wrestling to neutralize the knockout threat in Jacoby’s hands. However, it is unlikely that the savvy veteran will be drawn into Walker’s game; instead, look for the ‘Hanyak’ to dictate the terms of the engagement.
Walker’s defensive shell appears ill-equipped to handle Jacoby’s elite-tier striking acumen. Jacoby possesses the technical precision to dismantle Walker’s guard and find a home for his heavy hands. Furthermore, the fact that Walker failed to find a finish against Raffael Cerqueira—a fighter who has been stopped in three of his four UFC appearances—suggests a lack of finishing instinct at this level. Ultimately, Walker lacks the necessary tools and experience to overcome Jacoby’s superior striking and veteran composure. I expect Jacoby to control the range and secure a convincing victory.
Final UFC Prediction : Dustin Jacoby by KO/TKO (+136)
Final Verdict: Betting on UFC Vegas 113
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