Max Holloway Vs. Charles Oliveira Picks and Predictions are ready ! 🔥 “Eleven years after an anticlimactic injury cut their first meeting short, Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira are finally set to settle the score at UFC 326. But this isn’t the same pair of rising featherweights we saw in 2015. Since then, both have captured undisputed gold, built Hall of Fame resumes, and evolved into two of the most dangerous fighters in UFC history. With the BMF title on the line, we’re no longer looking at a ‘what if’. We’re looking at a collision between two legends in their absolute prime.”
Max Holloway (-196) VS Charles Oliveira (+160)
Although we have previously seen these two competitors square off, the initial encounter provides limited data for this upcoming rematch. The bout was cut short almost immediately when Oliveira suffered a shoulder injury, rendering him unable to continue.
In the brief exchange that lasted less than two minutes, we saw Max Holloway’s boxing on display. Whenever Oliveira attempted to press forward, Holloway utilized his superior footwork to reset and maintain distance. The younger version of Max effectively neutralized Charles’ attempts to close the range, staying in constant motion and reacting sharply to any forward pressure. Holloway’s ability to remain dynamic and force the fight into his preferred striking zones was the primary takeaway from that short-lived welterweight appearance.
Since their initial encounter, it is evident that both athletes have evolved significantly, refining their respective skill sets to an elite level. Despite the wealth of data available on both men, predicting a definitive outcome for this rematch remains an incredibly daunting task. In my estimation, this is a quintessential “pick ’em” fight. Perhaps the most balanced 50-50 matchup we have seen in recent memory. If these two were to fight five times, we might see five different results; the outcome hinges entirely on which fighter can dictate the flow of the contest on this specific night.
The first thing to consider is their physical conditioning. Based on recent training footage shared across social media, both veterans appear to be in peak physical form despite their longevity in the sport. Since his loss to Ilia Topuria, Oliveira proved he remains firmly among the lightweight elite with a high-level performance against Mateusz Gamrot. Similarly, Holloway looked spectacular in his last bout against Dustin Poirier, showcasing his legendary cardio and volume to secure a dominant five-round unanimous decision. It is essential to highlight that Max Holloway has transitioned seamlessly to the lightweight division. Any lingering doubts that his frame wouldn’t translate to 155 pounds have been silenced; if anything, his boxing prowess appears even more potent in this weight class. While Holloway holds a slight height advantage, Charles Oliveira possesses a significant reach advantage, sporting a 74″ reach compared to Holloway’s 69″.
Given their specific fighting styles, this reach disparity may not be the deciding factor. As evidenced by their brief first encounter, Holloway utilizes linear striking and superior lateral movement to close the distance according to his own rhythm. Oliveira, conversely, rarely relies on long-range sniping; such an approach would likely play into Holloway’s counter-striking game. Instead, expect “Do Bronx” to focus on collapsing the pocket and initiating clinch work. His ability to inflict damage from the Thai clinch will be pivotal; if he can compromise Holloway in close quarters, it will fundamentally shift the trajectory of the fight.
Oliveira must prioritize inflicting significant damage in the opening rounds while avoiding the trap of fighting at Holloway’s preferred high-volume pace. “Blessed” is notoriously difficult to track down once he establishes his rhythm, so the Brazilian’s path to victory lies in disrupting that momentum. One of the most effective tools for Oliveira will be his kicking game. By utilizing heavy leg and body kicks, he can effectively stymie Holloway’s footwork and force the Hawaiian to respect the constant threat of a finishing blow. If Oliveira can force Holloway out of his comfortable striking cadence and turn this into a disjointed, high-impact affair, he drastically improves his chances of securing the win.
Regarding the grappling dynamics, we certainly shouldn’t expect an offensive wrestling approach from Max Holloway. However, it is a near-certainty that Charles Oliveira will attempt to close the distance and initiate takedowns, particularly if he can trap Holloway against the fence. This is the one clear area where Oliveira’s skill set significantly outclasses Holloway’s. That said, grounding Holloway remains one of the most difficult tasks in the sport, as evidenced by his elite 83% takedown defense rate. Even in the rare instances where opponents successfully bring him to the mat, Holloway is notoriously difficult to keep down; his ability to scramble and regain his feet makes maintaining positional control over him an exhausting endeavor for any grappler.
The outcome of this bout hinges on who successfully dictates the range across five rounds. If Holloway keeps the fight at the end of his punches and prevents Oliveira from closing the gap, “Do Bronx” will struggle to find meaningful openings. The statistics reinforce this dynamic: Holloway lands a staggering 7.20 significant strikes per minute with 50% accuracy, while Oliveira lands 3.35 strikes per minute at a 54% clip.
In my view, Holloway has more clear paths to victory. Oliveira’s success depends on his ability to hunt for specific moments capitalizing on a lapse in Max’s defense or exploiting a technical error, but I find the likelihood of that happening to be slim given Holloway’s veteran discipline. Consequently, I am siding with Max Holloway in this contest. I also anticipate this fight going over 2.5 rounds; I expect Holloway to fight a calculated, tactical game that extends the duration of the bout. Despite the BMF title being on the line, which often invites reckless, guard-down exchanges in the closing seconds. The technical stakes here suggest a more measured approach for the majority of the fight.
Final Pick for Max Holloway VS. Charles Oliveira 2 – Max Holloway to win ( -185) or over 2.5 rounds ( -145 )
