After a long break, the UFC returns to the T-Mobile Arena in Vegas on January 24. While the return to the fight capital is always a major story, this event carries even greater weight as it marks the official debut of the first Paramount event.
The move to Paramount has generated significant additional interest among viewers and industry insiders alike. Since the announcement of this landmark agreement, UFC broadcasts have become noticeably more accessible to the global fanbase.
As we head into fight night, all eyes are on the production to see exactly what innovations and fresh features the promotion will offer as part of this new collaboration.
UFC 324 Picks and Predictions – Main Card Breakdown
The main event of UFC 324 features a high-stakes clash between 37-year-old Justin Gaethje and 31-year-old Paddy Pimblett for the interim lightweight title, while Sean O’Malley and Song Yadong share the Octagon in the co-main event. In addition to these headliners, the card is packed with compelling matchups across both the main card and the preliminaries that are sure to keep fans engaged. In this article, we provide the insights and background you need to form your own perspectives on the UFC 324 fights and help you make your predictions for this historic night.
Justin Gaethje (+190) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-233)
The favorite in this matchup is the Liverpool fighter, Paddy Pimblett. Bookmakers believe the 31-year-old, who is likely in better physical condition, has a stronger chance of defeating the veteran. I believe age and the different stages of their careers will be the deciding factors here; at this point, Paddy is a hungrier and more energetic fighter than Justin. Gaethje’s fighting career is nearing its end, making a challenge for the interim belt a late-stage hurdle, whereas Pimblett is entering his prime and finding his peak form. Therefore, I believe Pimblett holds the advantage in this bout.
Regarding their fighting styles, while Paddy is not known for exceptional striking, he maintains a solid defense and can land significant strikes on the feet, averaging 5.19 strikes landed and 3.14 absorbed per minute. In contrast, Gaethje lands 6.59 but absorbs 7.18., Pimblett will likely avoid prolonged stand-up exchanges; however, he won’t give Gaethje many openings in the striking department either, as he tracks shots well and fights cautiously on his feet.
We can expect Pimblett to seek the advantage through wrestling and grappling. It no secret that Gaethje defends takedowns well, boasting a 68% defense rate thanks to his wrestling background. While Pimblett doesn’t attempt a high volume of takedowns, his attempts are often precise, allowing him to finish or significantly damage his opponents once the fight hits the mat. This is where he dominates.
Although Justin has 14 fights in the UFC, he has rarely faced an opponent as grappling-oriented and aggressive in those transitions as Paddy. This could prove to be an unusual and difficult challenge for him to prepare for at 37 years old. Consequently, the Englishman’s key to victory will be his signature style and aggressive ground-and-pound, similar to the dominance he showed against a veteran wrestler like Michael Chandler. Gaethje will rely primarily on his sharp striking, damaging low kicks, and creating chaos, but I believe Paddy will be ready and will refuse to play Gaethje’s game.
One final factor is experience: Gaethje is a veteran of five-round wars and typically looks strong in deep waters. While Paddy lacks five-round experience in the UFC, he did complete three five-round fights in Cage Warriors, though he lost two of them via unanimous decision.
Early Pick: Paddy Pimblett
Sean O’Malley (-200) vs. Song Yadong (+170)
One of the bantamweight division’s biggest stars, Sean O’Malley, is looking to fight his way back into the title picture following two consecutive losses, most recently a championship defeat against Merab Dvalishvili. To do so, he must overcome Song Yadong, who enters this bout coming off a victory over the legendary Henry Cejudo. However, Yadong’s performance in that win wasn’t entirely convincing; it was a confusing fight, and as Cejudo’s subsequent bout with Payton Talbot showed, he appeared to be far from his best form since returning to the bantamweight division.
This fight will most likely take place on the feet, where anthropometry will play a decisive role. In this area, O’Malley holds a clear advantage with a 72-inch reach compared to Yadong’s 67 inches. This 5-inch reach advantage will make it much easier for O’Malley to work from his preferred distance. While the Chinese fighter will surely try to neutralize this by closing the gap to land heavy shots, executing such a plan against a striker of Sean’s caliber seems unrealistic. In his past encounter with Petr Yan—a fighter of similar stature to Yadong, O’Malley proved he is an elite striker against elite competition. Even Yan had to incorporate wrestling to compete, and even then, he couldn’t secure the win. Song Yadong lacks the specific combination of striking and wrestling transitions that Petr Yan possesses, making it unlikely he can disrupt O’Malley’s rhythm or create enough chaos to win.
I expect O’Malley to remain calm, composed, and balanced throughout the fight, effectively parrying Yadong’s attempts to hunt for a heavy knockout blow on his “colorful head.” Furthermore, over his eight-year UFC career, Song Yadong has struggled to secure wins against the very top tier of the division—the level O’Malley occupies. Having failed tests against elite names like Sandhagen and Yan, it leads me to believe that Yadong may simply be a high-level “gatekeeper” at #5, rather than a true championship-level threat in bantamweight division.
Early Pick: Sean O’Malley
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-333) vs. Derrick Lewis (+270)
We have a heavy-hitting heavyweight clash on the main card between Waldo Cortes-Acosta and the legendary veteran Derrick Lewis. Analyzing matchups in this division is always a challenge; you can predict how the fight will unfold, but a single heavy blow can change everything in the blink of an eye. The first thing that stands out when looking at the data is the age gap: the 34-year-old Acosta faces a 40-year-old Lewis, who, despite his age, claims to be in the best shape of his career. However, the numbers suggest that Acosta is currently in a more optimal prime for the heavyweight division. In terms of reach, Lewis holds a slight 1-inch advantage, while Acosta has a 1-inch height advantage, with their leg reach remaining equal.
Acosta boasts a professional record of 16 wins and 2 losses, and a crucial statistic to note is that the Dominican fighter has never been finished in his career. His opponent, on the other hand, is the ultimate head-hunter, with 24 of his 29 wins coming by way of knockout. The question is whether the “Black Beast” can track down “Salsa Boy.” Looking at Acosta’s previous performances, he is a remarkably cautious and mobile fighter for a heavyweight, making him a difficult target to pin down. He consistently maintains a comfortable distance, forcing his opponents to work hard to close the gap—something Lewis may struggle with given his counter-striking style. Lewis thrives when he is pressured and backed into a corner; that is when he finds his openings, much like his recent 35-second knockout of Tallison Teixeira.
I believe Acosta has the ability to analyze and see Lewis’s attacks coming. By utilizing his footwork, he can consistently reset the distance and keep the fight in his preferred range. Speed, movement, and distance control will be the keys to victory for Acosta. Psychologically, Acosta enters this bout with massive momentum following an impressive 2025 where he stayed active with five fights, compared to just one for Lewis. This feels like the moment where “Salsa Boy” seizes the opportunity to cement himself as a true contender in the title race.
Early Pick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Natalia Silva (-357) vs. Rose Namajunas (+285)
Another incredibly interesting and spectacular fight on this card features a clash between the elite past and future of the Flyweight division. Natalia Silva looks to pass another major test by securing a victory over Rose Namajunas, following her recent success against top competition. On the other Hand, Rose Namajunas is looking to re-establish her elite status at this stage of her career.
I believe the decisive factor in this fight will be whether Rose can successfully implement her grappling. While Silva holds the advantage on the feet due to her energetic, aggressive, and diverse striking, Rose averages 1.49 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 50% success rate. However, Silva’s takedown defense is a remarkable 92%, making it a massive challenge for the former champion to bring the Brazilian to the mat. We’ve seen this defense hold up before: Viviane Araujo attempted 9 takedowns against Silva and only landed one, while Alexa Grasso was unable to secure a single takedown in two attempts.
Silva lands an impressive average of 5 strikes per minute, and it may be difficult for Namajunas to keep up with that relentless pace. Consequently, I expect the Brazilian, who appears hungrier and more motivated than the former champion, to secure a victory, likely by judges’ decision (-200).
Early Pick: Natalia Silva
Arnold Allen (+220) vs. Jean Silva (-263)
Following a quiet 2025, Arnold Allen returns to the Octagon as an underdog against Jean Silva. This status is a significant factor to consider when making your pick. Meanwhile, Silva is returning to the Octagon after a “Fight of the Year” contender loss to Diego Lopes, and he is determined to prove he belongs at the highest level of the featherweight division. For Silva, a victory over a veteran like Allen is essential to cement his standing.
Silva thrives on landing heavy, sharp strikes, fighting at close range, and dragging his opponents into chaotic exchanges. He excels in “dirty boxing” and remains cold-blooded in the heat of the moment. Arnold Allen could prove to be a favorable matchup for this style, as the Englishman is never one to shy away from close-range exchanges and pocket fighting. While Allen is incredibly durable, he often loses these specific high-volume trades and frequently absorbs significant individual strikes—a dangerous habit when facing someone with Silva’s power.
Both fighters possess elite takedown defense, which leads me to believe this fight will remain entirely on the feet. Given Silva’s aggressive style, he will likely occupy the center of the Octagon and force a high pace. If the fight follows this trajectory, Silva will eventually find his opening to find a finish. While Allen has struggled to finish his opponents in his last three outings, Jean Silva has only been finished once in his entire career. It is difficult to imagine Allen finding a stoppage here; conversely, 15 minutes is more than enough time for the Brazilian to find his mark and potentially end the fight early.
Early Pick: Jean Silva
