UFC Vegas 114 – Emmett VS. Vallejos Picks and Predictions are here 🔥 The UFC returns to the Meta APEX this Saturday for UFC Vegas 114, featuring a high-stakes featherweight headliner that defines the “veteran vs. prospect” trope. On one side, we have the legendary power of Josh Emmett, a man whose right hand has altered careers and who remains one of the most durable fixtures in the 145-pound division. On the other, the surging Kevin Vallejos looks to capitalize on the biggest opportunity of his young career.
Josh Emmett (+460) VS Kevin Vallejos (-667)
The matchup between Kevin Vallejos and Josh Emmett presents a staggering 17-year age gap, a disparity reflected in the current betting lines. Despite Emmett’s storied career, oddsmakers are giving the veteran slim chances of success against the surging Argentinian. Both men are renowned for their devastating power, suggesting the majority of this contest will be fought on the feet.
While Vallejos often attempts to mix in grappling, his efficiency remains a concern; with a takedown accuracy of just 28%, he may find it difficult to ground a powerful wrestler like Emmett. Furthermore, Emmett’s durability is legendary. He has only been stopped by strikes once in his career, proving to be a difficult puzzle to solve even for the current elite, such as Ilia Topuria.
While Vallejos possesses legitimate “touch of death” power, it is unlikely he finds the clean shot necessary to put Emmett away early. In my view, the market has widened this gap too far; Vallejos being such a heavy favorite undervalues Emmett’s veteran savvy and chin. I view this as a much more competitive “pick ’em” fight than the odds suggest. However, the most confident play here isn’t on a winner, but on the duration. Given the toughness of both men, I don’t foresee an early finish.
Final Picks and Predictions – Kevin Vallejos to win OR – Round Total – Over 3.5 (-118)
Amanda Lemos (-164) VS Gillian Robertson (+204)
This strawweight clash offers a fascinating stylistic puzzle centered on the wrestling transition. Amanda Lemos has historically showcased a robust 64% takedown defense, a metric that will be put to the ultimate test by Gillian Robertson. Robertson, who successfully converts 40% of her takedown attempts, relies on her physical strength and relentless grappling chain to dominate opponents on the canvas.
However, Robertson is no longer a one-dimensional specialist. Her striking has evolved significantly, evidenced by her recent standing TKO victory over a high-level striker like Marina Rodriguez. At 38 years old, Lemos appears to be exiting her athletic prime, whereas the younger Robertson continues to find new peaks in her game.
The narrative of this fight hinges on the initial exchange: if Robertson can force the transition to the mat, she likely coasts to a dominant victory. If Lemos manages to keep the fight upright and stifle the control time, the bout transforms into a pure kickboxing match. Even in that scenario, Robertson’s improved volume and pressure may prove too much for the Brazilian veteran to handle over three rounds.
Final Picks and Prediction – Gillian Robertson (+204)
Ion Cutelaba (+195) VS Oumar Sy (-244)
Entering his fifth appearance under the UFC banner, the undefeated Oumar Sy faces his most significant hurdle to date in the form of Ion “The Hulk” Cutelaba. A ten-year veteran of the Octagon, Cutelaba has built a reputation for upsetting the trajectories of rising stars. He recently derailed the momentum of Ibo Aslan and pushed Modestas Bukauskas to the limit in a highly competitive affair, proving that his durability and experience remain potent weapons.
While Sy has looked flawless thus far, he has yet to face a veteran with Cutelaba’s specific brand of chaos. On paper, Sy’s physical dimensions and technical consistency give him the edge. He thrives on maintaining distance and utilizing his superior reach to pick opponents apart from the perimeter. Conversely, Cutelaba employs a more compact, defensive stance, using a “high-guard” approach to close the distance and initiate heavy-handed exchanges.
The tactical battle will revolve around range management. If Sy can weaponize his reach and keep Cutelaba at the end of his long-range strikes, he should be able to dictate the pace and eventually find a path to victory via pressure and control. However, it would not be a shock to see the veteran “gatekeeper” force a gritty, ugly fight that tests Sy’s composure in the clinches. While Sy remains the favorite, this is far from a foregone conclusion.
Final Picks and Prediction – Oumar Sy (-244)
Andre Fili (+265) VS Jose Delgado (-345)
The UFC Mexico City card continues its theme of veteran-versus-prospect matchups as Andre “Touchy” Fili takes on the heavy-handed Westin Delgado. Fili has been a staple of the UFC roster for 13 years, whereas Delgado is still finding his footing with three promotional appearances under his belt. Delgado’s only Octagon blemish came in a decision loss to Nathaniel Wood, a fight in which he showcased his dangerous power by scoring a knockdown in the opening frame.
In contrast, Fili has struggled with consistency throughout the latter half of his career; he hasn’t secured back-to-back victories since 2019. Recently, Fili has adapted his game by integrating more wrestling into his approach, a strategy that earned him a split-decision nod over Christian Rodriguez. However, defensive liabilities remain a significant concern for the veteran. Fili’s tendency to absorb heavy damage and his porous striking defense could prove fatal against a sharp counter-puncher.
I expect Delgado to capitalize on these openings. Having likely gained invaluable experience from his high-paced loss to Wood, the more motivated Delgado is well-positioned to land a fight-altering blow. While Fili has the veteran experience to make it a competitive affair, Delgado’s power and upward trajectory make him the favorite to secure the victory.
Picks and Prediction : Jose Delgado (-345)
Marwan Rahiki (-270) VS Harry Hardwick (+215)
Information remains somewhat limited on this pairing, but their previous outings provide a clear stylistic blueprint. We last saw Harry Hardwick struggle in his promotional debut, where he was ultimately compromised by the devastating leg kicks of Cauê Fernandes. Conversely, Marwan Rahimi enters with significant hype following a resilient performance on Dana White’s Contender Series, where he survived an early knockdown to orchestrate an impressive comeback victory.
Hardwick’s greatest attribute is his unwavering forward pressure. Even as his mobility was stripped away by Fernandes, he continued to march into the pocket. We should expect a similar high-pressure approach here as he attempts to suffocate Rahimi’s space. However, Rahimi has already demonstrated an aptitude for handling aggressive volume; his ability to remain composed under fire and land sharp counter-strikes will be the deciding factor in this matchup.
While one can never truly count out a former Cage Warriors champion like Hardwick, who possesses the grit to find a “Game-Winner” shot at any moment. The stylistic optics favor Rahimi. If Hardwick’s defense remains as stationary as it was in his debut, Rahimi’s counter-striking should allow him to outpoint the Englishman.
Picks and Predictions – Marwan Rahiki (-270)
Vitor Petrino (-256) VS Steven Asplund (+200)
One of the year’s true breakout stars, Steven Asplund, is set to welcome Vitor Petrino to the heavyweight division in a high-stakes encounter. While Petrino has already found some success north of 205 pounds, there remains a lingering question as to whether his frame is truly suited for the land of the giants. Asplund enters the Octagon coming off a dominant promotional debut where he finished Shon Sharaf in the second round, showcasing the kind of raw knockout power that is a staple of the heavyweight elite.
Petrino, on the other hand, arrives with momentum after back-to-back finishes over Thomas Petersen and Austen Lane. Despite these victories, many analysts and the betting markets are divided. While oddsmakers currently lean toward the former light heavyweight due to his perceived athletic and physical advantages, the “X-factor” remains the power discrepancy.
While Petrino may possess the speed advantage, he has yet to be tested by a natural heavyweight with Asplund’s heavy-handed precision. In a division where one connection can alter a career trajectory, I suspect Petrino will struggle to absorb the impact of a true heavyweight striker. Expect Asplund to find the chin and secure a statement victory.
Picks and Predictions: Steven Asplund (+200)
